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ANALISIS PENGARUH PENETAPAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA SERTIFIKAT BANK INDONESIA TERHADAP VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI (JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, NILAI TUKAR, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN INFLASI) DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1990.I-2008.IV December 15, 2009

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ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh penetapan tingkat suku bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) terhadap variabel makroekonomi (jumlah uang beredar (M1), nilai tukar (KURS), produk domestik bruto (PDB) dan inflasi (INF)) periode tahun 1990-2008.

Data yang dipergunanakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data kuartalan dari Januari 1990 – Desember 2008 yang bersifat skunder. Data diperoleh dari Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI) Bank Indonesia berbagai terbitan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan penulis adalah metode deskriptif dengan menggunakan model ekonometrika dan diuji oleh beberapa alat analisis regresi. Perhitungan yang digunakan adalah model regresi berganda dengan alat analisis koefisien determinasi (R2) dan pengujian yang dilakukan adalah uji t-statistik, uji autokarelasi (Durbin-Watson). Dimana semua pengujian diatas menggunakan perhitungan program EViews.

Dari hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa variabel suku bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah dan inflasi, sedangkan suku bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia berpengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap jumlah uang beredar dan produk domestik bruto. Dari faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penetapan kebijakan suku bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia tersebut ada beberapa variabel yang memiliki hubungan yang positif yaitu jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika dan inflasi, sementara produk domestik bruto memiliki hubungan yang negatif terhadap suku bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia.

Kata kunci : Sertifikat Bank Indonesia, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Amerika, Produk Domestik Bruto, Inflasi.

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ANALISIS PENGARUH TIDAK LANGSUNG SEKTOR PARIWISATA MELALUI PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH (PAD) TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN DI KABUPATEN CIAMIS PERIODE 1996 – 2005 March 4, 2009

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Asep Yusuf Hanafia, Chandra Budi L.S., Ihsan Kamil Munandar

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

The aims of this research is find out the influence of real income of revenue of local goverment toward unemployment level in Ciamis Residence on 1996 – 2005 period. This is research is  case study in departments which is connection in Ciamis Residence. This research using descriptive analysis method with case study approaches, the data is used secondary data which is six variables, they are amount of visitor, amount of staying at hotels, income per capita of regions in arround Ciamis Residence, income of tourism sector,  and unemployment level. In this research, to know accepted or not the hypothesis the writer using determination korelation analysis, coefficient regression analysis, and deviation of classic assumption analysis.

The result of this research showing that amount of coefficient determination between revenue of local goverment toward unemployment level is 0,61%, and the result of coefficient regression required ttest 3,562801 > tα 2,62 in level of confidence 95%, and the result of deviation of classic assumption analysis required  point DWL 0,879 < DWtest 1,683452 > DWu 1,320. Its mean this research conclusion the real income of region has influence toward unemployment level in Ciamis Residence on 1996 – 2005 period with amount of influence is 61%, and 39% is influence another factor.

 

Keywords :  Amount of visitor, amount of staying at hotel, income of tourism object, income per capita of regions in arround Ciamis Residence, revenue of local goverment tourism sector, and unemployment level.

 

ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI CADANGAN DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1992 – 2006 March 4, 2009

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Chandra Budi L.S.,  Dwi Hastuti L.K, Heru Duriat

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

This research aimed to know how about influence of gross domestic product, rate of interest (SBI), consumer price index and foreign direct investment on international reserves in Indonesia during period of 1992 – 2006, and to know the sensitivity level (elasticity) of international reserves on gross domestic product, rate of interest (SBI), consumer price index and foreign direct investment in Indonesia during period of the 1992 – 2006.

Data used in this research was descriptive secondary data or annualy data along fifteen years. Data were taken from Statistical of Economics and Finance Indonesia (SEFI) BI. Method of Research used was Multiple Regression Linear with analysis appliance: correlation analysis (R), coefficient analysis of determinant (R2), and elasticity analysis, while examination taken is test F, test t, test autocorrelation, test of multicolinearity, and heteroscedasticity test by using calculation of program of EViews.

Based on this research to show that 92,66 % of international reserves in Indonesia influenced by gross domestic product, rate of interest (SBI), consumer price index and foreign direct investment while remainder about 7,34 % were influence by other factors.

The influence of gross domestic product, consumer price index and foreign direct investment on international reserves in Indonesia during period of 1992 – 2006 partially is significant. But for the variable of rate of interest (SBI) the influence is not significant to international reserves in Indonesia during period of 1992 – 2006.

Elasticity international reserves to gross domestic product is elastic with relations which are positive. Elasticity international reserves to rate of interest (SBI) is inelastic with relations which are negative. Elasticity international reserves to consumer price index and foreign direct investment is inelastic with relation which is positive.

 

Keyword: gross domestic product,  interest rate (SBI), consumer price index, foreign direct investment

ANALISIS PENGARUH KEBIJAKAN MONETER (JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA) TERHADAP PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1986 – 2006 March 4, 2009

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Dita Sugih Hartini, Chandra Budi L.S, Budhi Wahyu F
Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

ABSTRACT

The objective of this research are to know: (a) The analysis of monetary policy (money supply and interest rate (SBI) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia Period 1986 – 2006, (b) The elasticity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on money supply and interest rate ( SBI) in Indonesia Period 1986 – 2006.
Data used in this research is times series of Annual Report Indonesia Bank, Statistical of Economics and Finance Indonesia (SEKI) BI. Method Research used are i) Multiple Regression analysis, ii) Coefficient correlation (R), coefficient of determination (R2), and elasticity analysis while examination taken is F test, t test, autocorrelation test by using calculation of program of SPSS.
The result of this research are: i) money supply (M2) and interest rate (SBI) have an effect significant to Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) in Indonesia Period 1986 – 2006. ii) The elasticity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on money supply (M2) and interest rate (SBI) in Indonesia Period 1986-2006 are money supply (M2) and interest rate (SBI) were significant and positive effect on Gross Domestic Product.

Keyword: monetary policy, money supply, interes rate, gross domestic product

ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1992.I – 2006.IV March 3, 2009

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Chandra Budi L.S., Iis Surgawati, Rizki Setiadi

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

ABSTRACT

 

This research aimed to know how about influence of inflation, gross domestic product, money supply, rate of interest (SBI), and international reserves on exchange rate of rupiah in Indonesia during period of 1992.I – 2006.IV, and to know the sensitivity level (elasticity) of exchange rate of rupiah on inflation, gross domestic product, money supply, rate of interest (SBI), and international reserves in Indonesia during period of the 1992.I – 2006.IV.

Data used in this research was descriptive secondary data or quarterly data along fifteen years. Data were taken from Statistical of Economics and Finance Indonesia (SEFI) BI. Method of Research used was Multiple Regression Linear with analysis appliance: correlation analysis (R), coefficient analysis of determinant (R2), and elasticity analysis, while examination taken is test F, test t, test autocorrelation, test of multicolinearity, and heteroscedasticity test by using calculation of program of EViews.

Based on this research to show that 97,6289 % of exchange rate of rupiah in Indonesia influenced by inflation, gross domestic product, money supply, rate of interest (SBI), and international reserves while remainder about 2,3711 % were influence by other factors.

The influence of gross domestic product, money supply, and international reserves on exchange rate of rupiah in Indonesia during period of 1992.I – 2006.IV partially is significant. But for the variable of inflation and rate of interest (SBI), the influence is not significant to exchange rate of rupiah in Indonesia during period of 1992.I – 2006.IV.

Elasticity exchange rate of rupiah to inflation and rate of interest (SBI) is inelastic with relations which are positive. Elasticity exchange rate of rupiah to international reserves and gross domestic product is inelastic with relations which are negative. Elasticity exchange rate of rupiah to money supply is elastic with relation which is positive.

 

Keyword: inflation, gross domestic product, money supply, rate of interest (SBI),  international reserves on exchange rate

ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UANG PRIMER DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1990-2002 March 3, 2009

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Aso Sukarso, Chandra Budi L.S., Epi Purnama

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

In economics, society often correlate money supply with growth of economics, increase of price (inflation), rate of interest, etcetera. Often said that by the amount of money supply which too much push economic activity will expand fast considerably. If taking place to continue, this matter is assumed dangerous because goods price will mount sharply. On the contrary, if money supply too a few hence economic activity become to drag or is tardy. If money supply too much hence rate of interest will tend to go down conversely.

Used by Research method writer is descriptive method by using model of econometric and tested by some analyzer of regression. Calculation of his statistic use coefficient formulasi of determinasi, test t, tests F, test autocorrelation (Durbin-Watson) by using application of E-Views 3.0. for Windows.

Domestic Product Bruto Variable, exchange rate and inflation have an effect on significant to primary money in Indonesia, while rate interest variable of SBI its influence don’t significant to primary money. Is but seen from its correlation of inflation, domestic product bruto and exchange rate have an effect on positive to primary money. While rate interest of SBI have an effect on negativity to request of money.

Elasticity level of domestic product bruto to primary money that is equal to 0,15 (inelastic). Elasticity exchange rate value to primary money equal to 0,12 (inelastic). Rate interest of SBI elasticity owning to primary money equal to -0,01 (inelastic). Elasticity level of inflation variable to primary money equal to 0,01 (inelastic).

 

Keyword: interest rate SBI, inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate, primary money

ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1996.I – 2006.IV March 3, 2009

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Chandra Budi L.S., Nanang Rusliana, Fajar Wilantara

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

ABSTRACT

 

This research aimed to know how about foreign capital cultivation, overseas debt, domestic saving and inflation on Economic growth in Indonesia during period of 1996.I – 2006.IV, and to know the sensitivity level (elasticity) of exchange rate of rupiah on exchange rate of rupiah lag time 1 quarterly, inflation, gross domestic product, money supply, rate of interest (SBI), and international reserves in Indonesia during period of the 1996.I – 2006.IV.

Data used in this research was secondary data or quarterly data along eleven years. Data were taken from Statistical of Economics and Finance Indonesia (SEFI) BI. Method of Research used was Multiple Regression Linear with analysis appliance: correlation analysis (R), coefficient analysis of determinant (R2), and elasticity analysis, while examination taken is test F, test t, test autocorrelation, test of multicolinearity, and heteroscedasticity test by using calculation of program of EVIEWS.

Based on this research to show that 83,3623 % of Economic growth in Indonesia influenced by foreign capital cultivation, overseas debt, domestic saving and inflation, while remainder about 16,6377 % were influence by other factors out of this model.

The influence of foreign capital cultivation, and domestic saving partially is significant on Economic growth in Indonesia during period of 1996.I – 2006.IV. But for the variable of overseas debt and inflation the influence is not significant to exchange rate of rupiah in Indonesia during period of 1996.I – 2006.IV.

Economic growth elasticity to cultivation of foreign capital, domestic saving and inflation is have the character of inelastic with the relation direction which are positive. As for economic growth elasticity to overseas debt is have the character of inelastic with the relation direction which are negative.

 

Keyword : Economic growth, foreign capital cultivation, overseas debt, domestic saving and inflation

 

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TABUNGAN MASYARAKAT INDONESIA PERIODE 2000.I – 2004.IV March 3, 2009

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Asep Yusup Hanapia, Chandra Budi LS., Tanu Wijaya

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

The aimed this research : to know level of influence gross domestic product, money supply and inflation rate to saving people Indonesia rate period of 2000 – 2004 (quarter data).

Data is used in this research data times series quartile which get from Yearly Report Indonesian Bank, Finance Indonesian and Economic Statistic (SEKI) Indonesian Bank and Statistic Committed Centre (BPS). Method research is used a Double Regression Linier Model which instruments analysis : Correlation Analysis (R), Coefficient Determinacy Analysis (R2), whereas examination other which is used f test, t test and Durbin Watson test which used calculation SPSS 11.5 for Windows program.

Based on processing data and output analysis which is writer do, can be pulled some by the following result :

1.      Influence of gross product domestic to saving people Indonesian rate, its result is significant.

2.      Influence money supply to saving people Indonesian rate, its result is negative significant.

3.      Influence inflation rate to saving people rate Indonesia its result is negative significant.

4.      Influence gross product domestic, money supply and inflation rate to saving people Indonesian rate, its result is significant.

 

Keyword: gross domestic product, money supply, inflation rate,saving

ANALISIS KEPEKAAN TABUNGAN TERHADAP TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, PDB, DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1990 – 2006 March 3, 2009

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Chandra Budhi L.S,  Iis Surgawati, Taufikpermana

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

 

 

ABSRTACT

 

This research aim to know how influence mount interest rate, GDP, and exchange rate of rupiah  to saving in Indonesia period 1990 – 2006, and to knowing the level of saving elasticity to interest rate, GDP, and exchange rate of rupiah in Indonesia periode 1990 – 2006.

In research to be executed, writer use the descriptive research that is trouble shooting procedure investigated by depictin /defining circumstance subject/object at somebody, the institute, society, and other, at the time of  now pursuant to visible fact or as it is.

Pursuant to inferential calculation result hence that 1) This research result in the reality influence mouth the interest rate, GDP, and exchange rate of rupiah to saving in Indonesia period 1990 – 2006 having influence which significant because with the high interest rate level hence society will be motivated to saving, and with the high earnings of society will be able to cast aside some of its earning to keeping in the form of saving, 2) Result of this research in the reality saving inelastis to interest rate, GDP, and exchange rate of rupiah in Indonesia period 1990 – 2006, with the saving which inelastis to interest rate, GDP, and exchange rate of rupiah to shown that ambition save the Indonesia society but also the existace high interest rate, high earning, and strong exchange rate, but more orienting to creation feel safe and more focused for the purpose of waking up – take care of in the future.

 

Keyword: interest rate, GDP,  exchange rate,  saving

ANALISIS PENGARUH SPREAD, NILAI TUKAR DAN PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO TERHADAP PENYALURAN KREDIT PADA BANK DEVISA DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2000.III – 2007.I March 3, 2009

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Chandra Budi L.S., Budhi Wahyu F., Diyan Taufiek

Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Siliwangi

 

 

 

ABSTRACT

 

This research aims to know the level of influence and sensitivity (elasticity) spread, exchange rate and gross domestic product on credit channeling at foreign exchange bank in Indonesia during period 2000.III – 2007.I.

Data utilized in this research is quarterly data from year 2000 quarterly III until year 2007 quarterly I. The data obtained from Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI) BI. Method of research used is model of Multiple Regression Linear with analyzer : correlation analysis (R), coefficient determination analysis (R2) and elasticity analysis, while examination taken is F test, t test, normality test, autocorrelation test, multicolinearity test, and heteroscedasticity test by using program of calculation EViews.

From this research result indicate that 81,69% credit channeling of foreign currency in Indonesia be influenced by spread, exchange rate, gross domestic product and gross domestic product previous period while the rest of equal to 18,31%  influenced by other factor.

Influence of spread and exchange rate variable on credit channeling of foreign currency in Indonesia during period 2000.III – 2007.I in partial is significant. But for the gross domestic product and gross domestic product of previous period variable in partial influence do not significant on credit channeling of foreign currency in Indonesia during period 2000.III – 2007.I.

Credit channeling elasticity of foreign currency on spread is negative inelasticity. Credit channeling elasticity of foreign currency on exchange rate, gross domestic product and gross domestic product of previous period is positive inelasticity.

 

Keyword: spread, exchange rate, gross domestic product,  credit channeling at foreign exchang